Putin: Fishing for a Fight

One of the justifications Putin used to invade Chechnya in 1999 was the attacks on Russian soil prior to that war. There were,  of course, the so-called invasion of Dagestan by Chechen rebels and later the Beslan hostage crisis which were used as excuses to launch the offensive and then ramp it up.

Putin had been determined to establish his national security and nationalist credentials and Chechnya was the perfect opportunity. The loss of Russian territory as a result of the 1996 peace treaty negotiated by Yeltsin and his incompetent cronies had added insult to injury after the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Always the KGB man, Putin vowed to re-annex Chechnya in 1999 as somewhat of a Presidential campaign promise to bring back the glory of the Soviet Union.

Russia, under Putin and Medvedev, is trying to re-claim the Soviet super-power throne and, once again, we have somewhat of a crisis brewing in the North Caucasus (see this, this and this). And, not surprisingly, Chechen terrorists have allegedly struck again on sacred Russian soil killing civilians in the heart of Moscow.

We have already seen the Russian military flexing its muscles in weak Georgia in 2008. Another military intervention in the North Caucasus would be seen as a follow up to establish absolute Russian supremacy in the region.

Here’s to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, Part II, and the Chechen War Redux.

UPDATE: Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarov has taken credit for the attacks. Video included below:

Chechnya’s western neighbor, Ingushetia, is now descending into a vicious cycle of violence. The latest is a bombing in the capital Nazran that killed 7.

Putin needs to change his approach to the region, lest we have another civil war on our hands. His current approach of autocracy and oppression only incites more violence.

This headline  would be perfect for the Kavkaz Center, a pro-Chechen independence news website. They might even have used it at some point.

The point of the headline, however, is still valid. Abkhazia is seemingly very happy under Russian control at this time. As is South Ossetia. Both are apparently glad to have effectively seceded from Georgia.

The question is how much better, or rather, beneficial, will the Russians prove when compared to the Georgians. Russia hasn’t taken dissent in the Caucasus lightly before. For almost 200 years, the Russians fought to subdue the Chechens and the Daghestanis. For most of the ’90s, the Russian military wrecked havoc in the North Caucasus just to prevent the secession of tiny little states that provided little benefit to the Russian Federation. The only benefit was to send the message to whoever was listening that Russia would not give up an inch of its territory.

Georgia did the same with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In fact, Georgia might even have been more brutal than the Russians because fewer outsiders cared about the human rights violations in an inconsequential little republic in the hind quarters of Europe. The Chechen wars invited thousands of journalists and observers from across the world. Abkhazia and South Ossetia – not quite as many.

Abhazia and South Ossetia have both suffered in Georgia just as Chechnya, Daghestan and Ingushetia suffered in Russia. Astonishingly, both of them have now taken refuge with Russia. It just doesn’t make any sense.

Both states have shown a very independent streak. With Georgia, they had Russia as a backer. What if the same story repeats itself? Who will now protect them from the Russians? The Iranians?