Chechnya’s western neighbor, Ingushetia, is now descending into a vicious cycle of violence. The latest is a bombing in the capital Nazran that killed 7.

Putin needs to change his approach to the region, lest we have another civil war on our hands. His current approach of autocracy and oppression only incites more violence.

This headline  would be perfect for the Kavkaz Center, a pro-Chechen independence news website. They might even have used it at some point.

The point of the headline, however, is still valid. Abkhazia is seemingly very happy under Russian control at this time. As is South Ossetia. Both are apparently glad to have effectively seceded from Georgia.

The question is how much better, or rather, beneficial, will the Russians prove when compared to the Georgians. Russia hasn’t taken dissent in the Caucasus lightly before. For almost 200 years, the Russians fought to subdue the Chechens and the Daghestanis. For most of the ’90s, the Russian military wrecked havoc in the North Caucasus just to prevent the secession of tiny little states that provided little benefit to the Russian Federation. The only benefit was to send the message to whoever was listening that Russia would not give up an inch of its territory.

Georgia did the same with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In fact, Georgia might even have been more brutal than the Russians because fewer outsiders cared about the human rights violations in an inconsequential little republic in the hind quarters of Europe. The Chechen wars invited thousands of journalists and observers from across the world. Abkhazia and South Ossetia – not quite as many.

Abhazia and South Ossetia have both suffered in Georgia just as Chechnya, Daghestan and Ingushetia suffered in Russia. Astonishingly, both of them have now taken refuge with Russia. It just doesn’t make any sense.

Both states have shown a very independent streak. With Georgia, they had Russia as a backer. What if the same story repeats itself? Who will now protect them from the Russians? The Iranians?