This year 37 states are holding elections to decide their governor for the next 2-4 years.  In total, Republicans hold 23 governor’s mansions while Democrats hold 26, with independent Crist in Florida. Among states up for election this year, Republicans hold 17, Democrats 19 and the independent in Florida.

tGO predicts the following results based on current polling, past trends and tGO’s political instinct:

Republicans hold

Alabama,  Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Nebraska, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Georgia – Strongly Republican states with current GOP governors. Even if the seat is open, only a major catastrophe would result in a Dem victory.

Nevada – Even though Harry Reid’s son Rory is running with pretty good name recognition, NV should remain in the GOP camp. Harry’s low polling should trickle down to Reid Jr.

Florida – Florida should elect a Republican governor to replace the recently independent Charlie Crist. While Florida generally votes for Republicans in statewide elections, polling shows a toss up but almost 20% are either unsure or voting for some random candidate. At the same time, Republicans (McCollum or Scott) are either leading or behind  within the margin of error. Once a GOP nominee is finalized, we predict the bump to take him across the finish line in November.

Vermont - The current governor, Jim Douglas, is a Republican who is very popular state-wide. His lieutenant and extremely moderate Brian Dubie is running to replace him and should win pretty easily. After all, he has been elected 4 times, the last 3 with a 50%+ majority in the bluest of blue states. Vermont is proud to have socialists represent it in the U.S. Senate but still elects Republicans to Montpelier.

Republicans lose

California – Even though Meg Whitman is running a well-funded and spirited campaign, Arnold is widely seen as a culprit in the continuing mess. It is highly unlikely that California voters will vote to replace him with another Republican.

Rhode Island – Lincoln Chafee, an independent, should win comfortably and is leading in polls. Even though he lost in 2006 partly because of his GOP affiliation, Chafee should do well without a party behind him, with high name recognition and a political dynasty to boot.

Minnesota – Mark Dayton is leading his Republican contender by almost 10 points. The state has been trending blue over the past many years and elected Al Franken to the U.S. Senate for crying out loud!

Connecticut – CT is also a deep blue state despite a GOP hold on the governor’s mansion since 1995. That will change this year.

Hawaii – Linda Lingle was really an oddity in Hawaii being the first Republican governor since the ’60s. Neil Abercrombie shall upgrade himself to the governor’s mansion this year.

Republicans win (or win back)

Iowa, Ohio, Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wyoming – Generally conservative, Southern/Mid-Western/Mountain states that can be expected to vote against the poorly performing incumbent party. Republican candidates are leading in polls by wide margins. The only exception is Ohio where the incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland is behind by only a couple of points, but he is likely to lose.

Illinois – The Blago effect and the Burris effect should combine to yield a GOP governor. Brady is leading by double digits.

Maine – a generally deep blue state but with moderate Republican Senators, Maine is likely to elect a GOP governor as the liberal vote will be divided between the Dem and the Independent. LePage is leading with a decent margin.

Michigan – the state suffering the most in the Great Recession has seen unemployment rates several points higher than the national average. Incumbent backlash should yield a victory for Snyder who is leading his Democratic opponent in polls.

Pennsylvania – another state suffering from high unemployment caused by a massive decline in manufacturing jobs. Just like 2008 but in reverse, incumbent backlash will kick out the Dems and bring in Corbett, who is polling nearly 50% right now.

New Mexico – a fiercely independent Mountain state, New Mexico made the GOP literally homeless in the state between 2006 and 2008, but that should change this time around. Susana Martinez is leading by a razor thin margin and her Hispanic background and incumbent backlash against Lt. Governor Diane Denish, who is the Dem nominee, should lead her to victory.

So, the tGO predicts the GOP will end up with 30 mansions. Democrats will finish with 19 and Lincoln Chafee shall waive his independent flag over Providence.

tGO predicts the November 2010 Senate elections will yield 51 seats for the Democrats and 49 for Republicans.

Going off the ratings given by Rasmussen Reports and others, Republicans will win the or hold on to the following swing seats:

Indiana - most pollsters have placed this in the Red camp

North Dakota – as above

Arkansas – Most pollsters have placed AR either leaning or solid Republican, and Blanche Lincoln is well below 50% at this time

Delaware – If Mike Castle, the current At-Large Republican Congressman, wins the GOP primary, which is very likely at this time, Republicans should be able to win this seat  very easily. Castle has been winning statewide elections for the past many years and, apparently, hasn’t lost a single election yet.

Illinois – Most pollsters have placed Illinois in the toss-up camp. Given the razor thin margins, however, between the GOP and Dem candidates, and the various scandals involving Democrats over the past 2 years, I think Mark Kirk should be able to win this seat.

Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter’s seat is really a toss up, but, Toomey has been leading Sestak over the past few months. Methinks this will go red this year.

Colorado – CO is one of those mountain states with an independent minded electorate, and independents won’t be voting blue this year. Ken Buck should defeat Bennet.

Nevada – Nevadans have 2 extreme senators – Reid on the far left and Ensign on the far right – but the state has been suffering much more than some others. Reid is likely to follow in Tom Daschle’s footsteps and Angle will fit right in with Ensign and Kyl.

Ohio – What is the likelihood that Portman will lose? Red!

Florida – Rubio or Crist will win. If Crist wins, methinks he will caucus with the Republicans. Remember Lieberman? Despite all the ill-will, he still went with Reid. Besides, Crist will not have the seniority to pluck any important committee assignments as Lieberman did. With Republicans, he has a better shot.

As for Washington, Dino Rossi has lost twice already. Republican candidates for statewide elections have been defeated in 2000 (Cantwell-Gordon), 2002 (Murray-Nethercutt), 2004 (Rossi-Gregoire), 2006 (Cantwell-McGavick) and 2008 (Rossi-Gregoire). Democratic candidates for President have been winning the state for the past several elections by hefty margins. Washington will stay Blue, especially with Murray’s popularity and long tenure.

California sits in the same boat. Apart from Arnold’s election and re-election, California has been over a safe Blue state for years now. Boxer will continue boxing in the Senate.

So, the end result would be 51 seats for Democrats and 49 for Republicans. Maybe the GOP can take back the Senate in 2012 when Obama has had more of an opportunity to utterly devastate our economy.

Those Who Live in Glass Houses...

So,  a middle school teacher from the Beaverton, OR, area decided to bring down the Tea Party – an entirely noble idea if you ask me. His “Crash the Tea Party” aimed to:

… dismantle and demolish the Tea Party … by infiltrating the Tea Party itself…

[A]sk people at the rally to sign a petition renouncing socialism. See just how much info you can get from these folks (name, address, DOB, Social Security #). The more data we can mines (sic) from the Tea Partiers, the more mayhem we can cause with it!!!!

Being a public employee, he was caught and placed on administrative leave because, of course, his actions were wrong especially if he did it all on the taxpayer’s dime.

The Tea Party Nation folks reacted by demanding:

…the school district to:

1. apologize for failing to properly supervise its employee
2. issue a written pledge to investigate how Levin’s site may have influenced his students, and
3. send a written reminder to staff, reiterating the district’s policy that prohibits teacher engagement in political activity during school hours or using school resources.

And, not just that… they also demand that:

Levin … not be terminated — as long as he successfully completes anger management and sensitivity classes

Did I read that right? Are my eyes failing me? TPN wants what?

Levin … not be terminated — as long as he successfully completes anger management and sensitivity classes

Anger management and sensitivity classes?!

Isn’t it the height of irony that the organization that is based on the very ideas of anger and insensitivity is demanding its foes to control their anger and insensitivity?

They should practice what they preach… the TPNers who were abusing black Congressmen should be first in line.

According to Rasmussen Reports, Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick faces an uphill battle in his re-election bid. Facing a former Democrat in Tim Cahill and moderate Republicans, Patrick seems to be only barely leading, as of April 5:

Wondering About His Next Job?

MA voters have preferred GOP Governors since 1991, with Patrick being the first Democrat since Dukakis. Moderate GOP candidates won 4 elections in a row before the 2006 devastation. If Patrick is polling such terrible numbers this early in the race, it seems highly unlikely that he will be re-elected.

Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill are both centrists, as opposed to Patrick’s far left politics. Either one would be more capable of leading Boston out of its financial mess.

Hey, if gays wanna shoot ‘em up, let ‘em. What’s the big deal?

Rex Parris or T-Rex Parris?

Rex Parris, the mayor of a small town in California, wants the people of his city to

validate a Christian stance in the April municipal election, in which a ballot measure endorses prayers at city meetings, specifically with permission to invoke a specific deity, including Jesus.

While I am not wholly convinced by the principle of the Separation of Church and State, the first amendment to the Constitution states that:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion…

Various court rulings have established that this clause should be interpreted as “government should not prefer one religion to another, or religion to irreligion” regardless of the level of the government. The mayor’s proposal amounts to an official establishment of religion at the city level.

Parris claims:

My vision of it is not a vision of exclusion. It’s a vision of attraction. I understand for so long it had an exclusionary feel to it. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do it. We should remove the exclusionary aspect.

Declaring a Christian city clearly excludes anybody who is not a Christian. Just like Saudi Arabia is an “Islamic state” and the efforts to convert India into a Hindu state, Mayor Parris’ declarations will not attract anyone who is a Christian.

If Parris wants to build a community that rejects atheism, his ballot measure should affirm the belief of the people in God and the invocation of God, rather than any specific deity. That would be a “vision of attraction.”