The surest test for the strength of any fledgling parliamentary democracy is the peaceful transfer of power after an election or a stable coalition government resulting from compromises made by the largest parties in parliament.

Iraq is that juncture (again?). Former PM Ayad Allawi’s coalition has won 2 seats more than the current PM Nouri Al Maliki’s party. None of the parties has a clear majority and a broad-based coalition government seems highly unlikely in the near future. Further, Al Maliki has vowed to challenge the results and is determined to remain in power.

So, what’s going to happen next? An extended period of horse-trading, as it happened in ‘05? Or, another Saddam Hussein?

Iraq is only marginally safer than when American troops patrolled the streets of Baghdad. In the latest bout of violence:

A string of car bombs exploded Wednesday in Baghdad as Iraqi forces tightened security around Shiite mosques, shrines and political party offices in advance of the funeral of a top Shiite leader.

The car bombs targeted primarily Iraqi troops in the city and a northern Baghdad suburb, killing one and wounding 19, police officials said. The violence raised concerns whether Iraqi forces can provide adequate security when thousands converge to mourn the death of Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim.

The discovery of Navy Capt. Michael Scott Speicher’s body 18 years after his plane was shot down during the first Gulf War reflects a change in Iraqi attitude towards Americans, it seems.

An Iraqi citizen came forward with the information, with little or no financial incentive. He was a resident of Anbar, probably the most persistently violent region of Iraq since the 2003 invasion.

The guy has been mum for more than 6 years now. It has been almost 2 years since the surge began.

He might have had an incentive to come forward during the post-surge operations, when the Sunni leaders in the province were cooperating with the Americans. He might have even  revealed this information during the insurgency, to curry favor with the Americans and make a buck. But no, he didn’t.

At this point, it seems that he doesn’t view the Americans as an enemy anymore. In Asian cultures, providing such important information for free, that is without any coercion, is considered to be an act of friendship, an act of reconciliation.

I hope that this reflects a broader change in Arab attitudes towards Americans. We can do a better job in the region with Arabs on our side.