the Global Observatory

tGO predicts the November 2010 Senate elections will yield 51 seats for the Democrats and 49 for Republicans.

Going off the ratings given by Rasmussen Reports and others, Republicans will win the or hold on to the following swing seats:

Indiana - most pollsters have placed this in the Red camp

North Dakota – as above

Arkansas – Most pollsters have placed AR either leaning or solid Republican, and Blanche Lincoln is well below 50% at this time

Delaware – If Mike Castle, the current At-Large Republican Congressman, wins the GOP primary, which is very likely at this time, Republicans should be able to win this seat  very easily. Castle has been winning statewide elections for the past many years and, apparently, hasn’t lost a single election yet.

Illinois – Most pollsters have placed Illinois in the toss-up camp. Given the razor thin margins, however, between the GOP and Dem candidates, and the various scandals involving Democrats over the past 2 years, I think Mark Kirk should be able to win this seat.

Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter’s seat is really a toss up, but, Toomey has been leading Sestak over the past few months. Methinks this will go red this year.

Colorado – CO is one of those mountain states with an independent minded electorate, and independents won’t be voting blue this year. Ken Buck should defeat Bennet.

Nevada – Nevadans have 2 extreme senators – Reid on the far left and Ensign on the far right – but the state has been suffering much more than some others. Reid is likely to follow in Tom Daschle’s footsteps and Angle will fit right in with Ensign and Kyl.

Ohio – What is the likelihood that Portman will lose? Red!

Florida – Rubio or Crist will win. If Crist wins, methinks he will caucus with the Republicans. Remember Lieberman? Despite all the ill-will, he still went with Reid. Besides, Crist will not have the seniority to pluck any important committee assignments as Lieberman did. With Republicans, he has a better shot.

As for Washington, Dino Rossi has lost twice already. Republican candidates for statewide elections have been defeated in 2000 (Cantwell-Gordon), 2002 (Murray-Nethercutt), 2004 (Rossi-Gregoire), 2006 (Cantwell-McGavick) and 2008 (Rossi-Gregoire). Democratic candidates for President have been winning the state for the past several elections by hefty margins. Washington will stay Blue, especially with Murray’s popularity and long tenure.

California sits in the same boat. Apart from Arnold’s election and re-election, California has been over a safe Blue state for years now. Boxer will continue boxing in the Senate.

So, the end result would be 51 seats for Democrats and 49 for Republicans. Maybe the GOP can take back the Senate in 2012 when Obama has had more of an opportunity to utterly devastate our economy.