the Global Observatory

This year 37 states are holding elections to decide their governor for the next 2-4 years.  In total, Republicans hold 23 governor’s mansions while Democrats hold 26, with independent Crist in Florida. Among states up for election this year, Republicans hold 17, Democrats 19 and the independent in Florida.

tGO predicts the following results based on current polling, past trends and tGO’s political instinct:

Republicans hold

Alabama,  Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Nebraska, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Georgia – Strongly Republican states with current GOP governors. Even if the seat is open, only a major catastrophe would result in a Dem victory.

Nevada – Even though Harry Reid’s son Rory is running with pretty good name recognition, NV should remain in the GOP camp. Harry’s low polling should trickle down to Reid Jr.

Florida – Florida should elect a Republican governor to replace the recently independent Charlie Crist. While Florida generally votes for Republicans in statewide elections, polling shows a toss up but almost 20% are either unsure or voting for some random candidate. At the same time, Republicans (McCollum or Scott) are either leading or behind  within the margin of error. Once a GOP nominee is finalized, we predict the bump to take him across the finish line in November.

Vermont - The current governor, Jim Douglas, is a Republican who is very popular state-wide. His lieutenant and extremely moderate Brian Dubie is running to replace him and should win pretty easily. After all, he has been elected 4 times, the last 3 with a 50%+ majority in the bluest of blue states. Vermont is proud to have socialists represent it in the U.S. Senate but still elects Republicans to Montpelier.

Republicans lose

California – Even though Meg Whitman is running a well-funded and spirited campaign, Arnold is widely seen as a culprit in the continuing mess. It is highly unlikely that California voters will vote to replace him with another Republican.

Rhode Island – Lincoln Chafee, an independent, should win comfortably and is leading in polls. Even though he lost in 2006 partly because of his GOP affiliation, Chafee should do well without a party behind him, with high name recognition and a political dynasty to boot.

Minnesota – Mark Dayton is leading his Republican contender by almost 10 points. The state has been trending blue over the past many years and elected Al Franken to the U.S. Senate for crying out loud!

Connecticut – CT is also a deep blue state despite a GOP hold on the governor’s mansion since 1995. That will change this year.

Hawaii – Linda Lingle was really an oddity in Hawaii being the first Republican governor since the ’60s. Neil Abercrombie shall upgrade himself to the governor’s mansion this year.

Republicans win (or win back)

Iowa, Ohio, Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wyoming – Generally conservative, Southern/Mid-Western/Mountain states that can be expected to vote against the poorly performing incumbent party. Republican candidates are leading in polls by wide margins. The only exception is Ohio where the incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland is behind by only a couple of points, but he is likely to lose.

Illinois – The Blago effect and the Burris effect should combine to yield a GOP governor. Brady is leading by double digits.

Maine – a generally deep blue state but with moderate Republican Senators, Maine is likely to elect a GOP governor as the liberal vote will be divided between the Dem and the Independent. LePage is leading with a decent margin.

Michigan – the state suffering the most in the Great Recession has seen unemployment rates several points higher than the national average. Incumbent backlash should yield a victory for Snyder who is leading his Democratic opponent in polls.

Pennsylvania – another state suffering from high unemployment caused by a massive decline in manufacturing jobs. Just like 2008 but in reverse, incumbent backlash will kick out the Dems and bring in Corbett, who is polling nearly 50% right now.

New Mexico – a fiercely independent Mountain state, New Mexico made the GOP literally homeless in the state between 2006 and 2008, but that should change this time around. Susana Martinez is leading by a razor thin margin and her Hispanic background and incumbent backlash against Lt. Governor Diane Denish, who is the Dem nominee, should lead her to victory.

So, the tGO predicts the GOP will end up with 30 mansions. Democrats will finish with 19 and Lincoln Chafee shall waive his independent flag over Providence.