Reading twitter, facebook and other posts over the past few days, Washington state Republicans are gloating again that the incumbent Democratic Senator in Washington state, Patty Murray, won under 50% of the vote in the primary and
Murray and Rossi, courtesy RedState
that the combined Republican vote for U.S. Senator was over 50%. Hence, Dino will win. Crack the champagne!
Their optimism, however, is almost farcical. 2008 Primary results, the first time for Washington’s ridiculous Top-2 Primary, had Gregoire was at 48.27% and the combined Republican vote sat at 48.15%. The combined wisdom was that an incumbent who receives less than 50% in a 2 way race will lose. Gregoire defeated Rossi 53-46 in the General to the chagrin of the so-called pundits.
Murray this year is polling 48-44 in Rasmussen as of August 19, 2010. Scotty tends to poll more conservatives and Republicans but is still counting this race as Leaning Democratic. Seattle PI showed in May that the two were in a dead heat at 48-47. But, the poll numbers are not enough to predict the race.
In 2004, Murray defeated Nethercutt 55-43, which has been close to her historical margin of victory over her GOP opponents. That year, Rossi technically won over Gregoire in the Gubernatorial race, but Patty cruised to victory without breaking a sweat. Democratic share of the vote has also hovered around the 53-56% mark over the past several elections, especially at the Federal or Statewide level. McGavick had also lost 40-56 to Cantwell in 2006. The one exception was the Rossi-Gregoire race in 2004, but as we have seen since, that was really an anomaly.
Murray’s current job approval ratings sit at 55-37, according to SurveyUSA, a wholly satisfactory result given the state of the economy and the overall Congressional approval rating of 20% or less. The people of Washington are happy with Murray with all the hundreds of millions of dollars the Queen of Pork has been shoveling our way. Again 55% is close to Patty’s and statewide Democrat’s vote share over the past several elections.
Another problem for Rossi is that the Tea Party does not support him and he’s not doing much to court them either. DINO = RINO.
It is thus safe to say that Patty Murray will win comfortably with over 50% of the vote, and Rossi will be left wondering how he could mess it up third time around.
Disclaimer: I support Dino and I wish I were wrong, but, you can’t change reality.
