Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has just declared a 2 month cease-fire in its decades long campaign of terror against oil companies, foreigners in the Niger Delta region and the Nigerian government.
This is in celebration of the release of Henry Okah, a rebel leader arrested by the government during its own campaign of terror against the Igbo people of the Niger Delta a year ago. The cease-fire is probably only a short term respite to allow the rebels to regroup and recover from the government’s campaign against it.
This temporary peace gives hope that it can be made permanent. While the root causes of the conflict still exist and the government hasn’t done much to address any of the grievances of MEND and of the Igbo population of the Niger Delta, the prospect of lasting peace still exists.
First is the continued discrimination against the Christian and Animist Igbo, who are ethnically different from the Christian Yoruba and Muslim Hausa in the rest of the country. Additionally, their culture, traditions and political structure are vastly different from the rest of the Nigerians. The Igbo have already fought a losing civil war in the ’60s, which led to the current insurrection.
The government’s campaign against the insurgents is only seen as continuation of this persecution. Over the past few months, government troops have literally been waging war against the rebels.
Secondly, while the Nigerian government has made 1.6 trillion dollars from the Delta oil since 1953, SE Nigeria remains one of the poorest regions in the country. The local budget in 2006 was barely $1bn and most Nigerians live on less than $2 a day. Very little of the oil revenue is transferred back to the delta.
Thirdly, MEND has become quite adept at generating revenue by terrorizing foreigners and oil companies. It would hardly stop short of full control. Worse, it is barely a front for the numerous militant organizations in the region and can hardly represent any of them.
Conflict in the Niger Delta has been ongoing for the past 40 years. Any hope of long-term peace is dependent on what the government does over the next few months.
At this point, a policy of reconciliation, autonomy and greater share of oil revenues for the region and continued pursuit of the criminal militants, with the greatest stress on the first two option, can help quieten the region for good. The time may be ripe.
Oil revenues and production in the Niger Delta are down which means that MEND is not making as much money as before. The people of the Delta are suffering even more with this drop in industrial activity. Shell has settled a lawsuit against it, which has pacified Nigerian human rights activits.
So, there’s still hope.
