I was waiting till the Congress actually formed the government to comment on the recent elections in India. Apparently, the INC has the support of 322 members of parliament to form the government, well over the requirement of 274 out of 527. Manmohan Singh will remain as Prime Minister, shockingly the first PM to get re-elected since Nehru way back when! Even the iconic Indira Gandhi, Nehru’s daughter, didn’t manage to win 2 elections in a row.
Let’s take a closer look at the results, courtesy Times of India:
Election results, '09 v '04
The Congress gained over 60 seats, and its coalition 78 . This compares to a loss of 18 seats for the BJP alliance and 25 for the Communists. The fourth group, also dubbed the fourth front, lost a combined 38 seats. Mamta Bannerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TC), which had allied with the BJP last time around but came back to the INC this time, gained a whopping 17 seats, that’s a 850% increase over last time. In Maharashtra, however, the Congress’ ally, the NCP failed to increase its foothold any further.
The BJP has lost seats in almost every state. Even in its home state of Maharashtra, the INC and NCP have a combined 25 versus only 20 for the BJP and its friends. In Gujarat, the INC is not far behind with 11 versus 15.
The only happy camper is the Janata Dal United led by Nitish Kumar in Bihar. It seems that he has been able to permanently dislodge Laloo Yadav’s RJD, my favorite party and politician, from power in Bihar. RJD has been reduced to a mere 4 seats, all in Bihar and it isn’t even part of the state government.
As with most of my posts, there is a question to be answed: what is the cause of this improved mandate for the INC? There are several things at play here:
1. Rahul Gandhi – Rajiv Gandhi’s son and heir-apparent to the Gandhi-Nehru dynasty is a charismatic, politically savvy, handsome young man. Along with her sister, Rahul is hugely popular, especially among the ladies ….
Rahul Gandhi and the ladies, courtesy dubbagol
Rahul is a welcome change from all the 90-year old politicians still hanging around. Rahul’s youth and vigor has re-energized the electorate. He is also quite sensible, keeping his mouth shut when the time comes and saying the right things.
Cho Ramaswamy, respected South Indian journo, thinks:
I don’t think [Rahul] is a vote catcher yet. But he seems to be quite a sensible person; the way he talks about things seems to be balanced and sensible. But he is not a vote catcher. Hereafter, his voice will be heard increasingly within the party.
I agree Rahul is sensible, but he has proved to be a vote-getter already. There can be few explanations for the surge in seats for the INC, that was down and out only a few years back.
2. Singh’s Economic Stimuli – Manmohan Singh has spent the last few months shovelling money at the common man. His tax cuts, increased farm and industrial subsidies. The most important part of all this, in my opinion, is Laloo’s new railway budget: fare cuts, new trains and improved schedules. Trains are the lifeblood of the country and any changes directly affect the common man. Lower fares means more money left over for other essentials. More trains mean easier traveling. The budget overall was an election year ploy, but the INC has proved over the last few years that it can better manage the economy than the BJP. Laloo has been cutting fares ever since he became the Rail Minister in 2004, by reducing overhead and improving law enforcement. Still, it is impressive that the INC was re-elected in such difficult economic times.
3. The BJP – The opposition led by the BJP, the Hindu nationalist party, has not done itself any favors by declaring Narendra Modi, that murderous, genocidal bastard from Gujarat, as the Prime Minister-in-waiting. The Times of India had an interesting headline: Call in BJP for Narendra Modi as PM grows louder. Where are the callers now? Did they actually have the BJP’s interest in mind when they were making that call? Did they actually expect Muslims and moderate Hindus, who form the majority of the population, to even consider voting for a terrorist who killed thousands of Muslims?
Furthermore, BJP’s focus on Hindutva seems to have backfired big time for them this time around. Calcutta’s Telegraph reports that BJP bigwigs are beginning to question whether their Hindu nationalist agenda is as effective as it used to be in the early ’90s when LK Advani, BJP’s candidate for PM, demolished the Babri Masjid. They are still trying to explain away the election results by claiming:
“…that the Congress gained in Bengal and Kerala because the Left was decimated; it retained its clout in Andhra because the people did not trust the third front; and it pocketed Rajasthan and Delhi as a bonus after the Assembly poll win.”
While it is true that the INC gained mostly at the expense of the Third Front, the BJP lost 22 seats. Even the ultra-nationalist Shiv Sena lost a seat, which is not a good thing for the BJP alliance. It may signal that even the staunchest supporters of its Hindutva crap may be tiring after years of communal tension.
Varun Gandhi, another scion of the Gandhi family but one gone astray, vowed to chop off Muslim heads and hands, as a representative of the BJP. And this is the great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru, the man who worked to keep India united. His mother, Maneka, claims that his words have been distorted. Well, there were too many people at the rally for all of them to have heard wrong. I am glad that Varun Gandhi showed us his true colors before the elections.
4. Third Front Follies – Communists contest elections only in a handful of states – West Bengal, Kerala, and a couple other NE ones (aren’t free elections against their basic principles?). Over the past few years, they have proved to be obstructionist and counter-productive, as part of the ruling coalition. Even its homestate newspaper, Calcutta’s Telegraph, declares it to be “inconsiderate” and unreliable. The third front tried to scupper the Indo-US nuclear deal, railed against much-needed privatization and foreign investment, and opposed any early cuts in subsidies or taxes. The communists could never be expected to remain a force at the national level but their swift fall from grace over the last 4 years is still a bit surprising.
The INC has clearly won more seats than last time, but it hasn’t really routed the opposition. BJP lost a few seats but the Third Front was the biggest loser. Of course, the INC was able to play the communal card and portray itself as an attractive alternative to the nationalistic policies of the BJP. I feel that the people have given it another opportunity not necessarily because they like the Congress, but because the opposition is so aggravating. The INC still needs to be careful especially in such trying times, lest it creates another PV Narasimha Rao-like debacle and is again thrown into the political wilderness for years. The Indian media is also urging the INC to be careful in interpreting the election results.
