Somalia has been without a functional government since the 1991 revolution against Siad Barre. Numerous warlords fought each other and remnants of the Central Government to gain control, but no one was successful. The UN and the US tried intervening between 1992-95 and failed miserably. An enduring image of this failed operation was the body of an American soldier being dragged through the streets of Mogadishu. Since then, Somaliland and Puntland have declared independence, but have not been recognized by a single country.
After 2001, the US again tried intervening in Somalia by creating the Transitional Federal Government, a completely dysfunctional authority, considered to be a puppet government within Somalia. TFG has failed to unite and consolidate its power over Mogadishu, let alone all of Somalia.
The rise of the so-called Islamists in 2006, under the banner of the Islamic Courts Union, led to the creation of a united front against the chaos prevalent under TFG and the warlords. The ICU rapidly captured most the countryside, Mogadishu and threatened the transitional capital Baidoa before Ethiopia invaded in 2007 to “restore” the authority of the TFG, with the approval of the US.
But, what has happened since Ethiopia withdrew in late 2008? The rebels have again captured most of the countryside, and sporading fighting has been going on in Mogadishu. The TFG under the newly anointed President Sharif Ahmed continues to fail to provide any security to the citizens of Somalia.
Piracy off the coast of Somalia is a major security risk to shipping in the most important maritime channel in the world. The world’s most powerful navies have singularly failed in their attempts to control this threat. In the recent capture of Maersk Alabama and the subsequent drama involving the hostage taking of its captain, American military commanders have shown that they have no idea how to control this menace. In an interview with the BBC, Central Commander Vice Admiral Bill Gortney paid tribute to “an incredible team effort” and said he was “extremely proud of the tireless efforts of all the men and women who made this rescue possible.”
And, this is about freeing one man.
Trying to militarily coerce Somali pirates has not worked. There is no central authority to threaten. Nor will American heroics prevent anything. So, what is the solution?
In one word: compromise.
Americans and the world need to understand that the so-called Islamists are not the problem. The Islamists rose in Somalia, as in Afghanistan, after years of anarchy and chaos to bring peace and rule of law to the country.
Islam and Shariah are not the problem. American and Western views of Shariah are the problem, especially those of neo-cons and their allies. Sharif Ahmed, a former Islamist himself, has shown that he understands the need to compromise, but things have not moved forward, most likely under Western and Ethiopian pressure.
How do we compromise then? The ICU should be brought into the government, fresh elections for the Parliament need to be held, Shariah law needs to be implemented (by the way, Somalians do support it), and Ethiopia needs to be kept out. Finally, we need to recognize that the Islamists have to be part of the solution. By continuing to marginalize them, we cannot ever achieve enduring peace in Somalia.
Yes, all this is equivalent to acquiescing to ICU demands, but has anything else worked? No.
History has shown that extremists tend to moderate their policies once in power, especially when stakeholders try to work with them. A recent example is the BJP, an extremist Hindu nationalist party in India, that become extremely moderate once it actually won power. Interestingly, Americans trusted BJP to moderate, but Muslims are never similarly trusted. Hamas is often presented as a counter example, but Israel and the US never really tried to work out their problems with Hamas, so to speak. The reaction to their election victory was sanctions. Likewise, the ICU is more likely to become moderate once it actually forms a government.
Moreover, the Islamists have shown before that they can drop their differences and create a united front. They also seem to be the only entity that can control Somalia. At this point, they really have no incentive to prevent piracy as Ahmed will get all the credit. But, once in power, it is very likely that they will be able to effectively control crime on- and off-shore.
The Taliban, despite their faults, finally brought an end to the civil war in Afghanistan. Their only mistake was harboring and supporting Al Qaeda. As of March 2009, the Taliban again control most of Afghanistan. Somalia can be prevented from this terrorist pitfall by implementing a carefully crafted policy of strategic engagement, using dollops of developmental and even military aid.
Somalians are a resilient and entreprenuerial lot, demonstrated by the way Somali refugees have settled down around the world and established dozens of businesses (one example, another). Given a peaceful homeland, they can surely do wonders back home.
